Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #32
New Haven Regional Rank #5
Woodlan Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational DeKalb Baron Classic Marion Invitational Northrop Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Classic Summit Athletic Conference New Haven Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 453 395 606 435 516 486 510 565 455 471
Team Adjusted Rating 395 414 435 516 486 510 565 455 471
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational DeKalb Baron Classic Marion Invitational Northrop Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Classic Summit Athletic Conference New Haven Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
32  Will Schlegel 12 16:00 16:25 15:56 16:20 17:20 16:29 16:44 16:49 16:16 15:54
99  Hunter Panning 11 16:33 16:13 16:06 16:19 16:16 16:07 16:30 16:44 17:21 16:35 16:49
265  Cillian Hoover 12 17:05 17:11 16:52 17:03 17:00 16:50 17:11 17:06 17:09 17:04 17:06
515  Zachary Cecil 11 17:41 18:57 17:33 17:25 17:23 17:48 17:41 17:52 17:36 17:36 17:51
729  Karsten Sheets 10 18:04 18:37 18:21 18:13 18:12 18:03 17:52 18:11 17:59 17:57
901  Jack Habegger 12 18:21 18:13 18:01 18:02 18:17 19:15 18:29 19:22 18:13 18:11 18:35
1,053  Ethan Loggins 9 18:32 18:47 18:58 18:27 18:03 18:30 18:19 18:39
1,059  Connor Creutz 9 18:32 19:01 18:39 18:47 18:12 18:25 18:24 18:50 18:55 18:22 18:39




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 22.2 530 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.3 5.8 8.5 11.4 14.5 18.6 20.1 13.5
Regionals 100% 5.2 179 0.4 7.3 17.1 30.1 41.8 3.2 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.0 55 99.9 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Schlegel 100% 31.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 100.0%
Hunter Panning 100% 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
Cillian Hoover 100% 193.7 23.0%
Zachary Cecil 100% 231.7 0.0%
Karsten Sheets 100% 240.8 0.0%
Jack Habegger 100% 246.3 0.0%
Connor Creutz 100% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Schlegel 100% 3.4 16.8 15.3 13.7 11.6 9.3 7.9 6.8 5.1 4.2 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Hunter Panning 100% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.8 4.4 4.2 6.1 7.5 8.7 9.5 9.4 8.3 6.6 5.8 4.6 3.9 2.6 2.8 1.5 100.0%
Cillian Hoover 100% 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.0 100.0%
Zachary Cecil 100% 63.9 100.0%
Karsten Sheets 100% 90.4 100.0%
Jack Habegger 100% 119.7 99.9%
Connor Creutz 100% 140.6 99.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Schlegel 1.7 28.6 29.1 20.3 11.9 6.2 4.0 0.0
Hunter Panning 6.2 0.1 1.2 5.5 10.9 17.1 60.7 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.0
Cillian Hoover 9.0 0.0 0.5 33.5 15.7 15.8 28.8 5.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Zachary Cecil 13.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 14.8 25.9 16.9 11.8 8.7 6.4 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2
Karsten Sheets 21.4 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 4.9 5.8 6.3 6.9 8.0 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.5 7.8
Jack Habegger 28.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.8 5.7 6.6
Connor Creutz 32.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.7